Volatility in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry - a Simulation Based Study
نویسندگان
چکیده
The volatility in a CPG market is modelled using a bottom up simulation approach and validated against disaggregated supermarket transactions data. The simulation uses independent agents, each agent representing unique households in the data. A simple behavioural model incorporates household preferences for product attributes, prices and promotions. Our validation strategy tests the model predictions at both macro and micro levels. At the macro level, the model is validated against out of sample evolution of market shares while at the micro level, household level choice of individual products and product attribute combinations are used. The model captures the volatility in terms of market share of brands and flavours – with the direction of change being more accurately predicted than the magnitude. At the micro level, we achieve a reasonable degree of prediction accuracy of household level SKU choice and a substantially higher accuracy for attribute choice. We found that product size to be the most difficult to predict among all attributes.
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ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Advances in Complex Systems
دوره 13 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2010